I’ll say it again: Obi would get all of the votes from the SS and SE, and no party would be able to stop him.
The PDP would also try. Obi would split the votes in Lagos and Ogun, but Tinubu would win SW by a huge margin.
Obi would get about 25% of the vote in Lagos and Ogun, as well as a lot of votes in Oyo, Ondo, Osun, and Ekiti, thanks to Igbos and their Yoruba friends and young people. Obi and Tinubu are tied in Lagos right now. I think Obi will win Lagos on election day, but not yet.
Obi would take Benue, Abuja, Plateau, Tarraba, and, to my surprise, Nassarawa. At the moment, the LP has gotten 15,000 young people to sign up as volunteers for a grassroots campaign and PVC drive for Obi. More people are signing up, and 70% of those 15,000 are from Nassarawa State.
In the North, Christians would vote 70% for Obi and 30% for Atiku. I’m talking about the Northeast and Northwest. Christian youths in the North are good soldiers for Obi. Some Muslim youths would vote for Obi, but he wouldn’t get more than 25% of the vote in the North.
Based on this, Obi has SE, SS, and most NC. For Atiku, he would win the NE, tie with Kwankwaso in the NW, but Kwankwaso would win the majority of votes there. In the NW, Atiku would get votes in the NC and more than 25 percent, which includes Abuja. He would also get some votes in the SS and SE, but not many in the SW.
Tinubu would get a large number of votes in the Southwest, but Obi would run against him in his home base, especially in Lagos, which has the most votes in Nigeria.
Lagos won’t be a sleeping giant when it comes to running for president in 2023. Tinubu would have a hard time in SE and SS, but he would win 25 percent of the vote in NC. APC would lose Abuja, and Tinubu would be at the mercy of the northern governors who gave him the APC presidential nomination.
Kwankwaso is a problem for Atiku in the North because he would beat him in the Northwest. Kwankwaso is unlikely to step down for Atiku because he needs to show how popular he is in order to have a better chance of becoming president after the Southern election, if it happens.
If PVC registration goes on until next month and beyond, Obi of the Labour Party will win, followed by Atiku of the PDP and Tinubu of the APC.
But this picture can change if people buy votes, use violence to stop people from voting, or step down at the last minute.
Now that INEC doesn’t let people cheat, it’s up to us as citizens to stop vote buying, which is the most powerful way to influence people.
I don’t think it has anything to do with tribe or religion. Walk around and ask people who own PVC what they think.