On Monday, 17th March 2025, the All-Progressives Congress (APC) issued a press statement signed by Felix Morka, Esq., National Publicity Secretary. In the statement, the APC addressed the comments made by the former Kaduna State Governor, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, and highlighted various economic achievements under President Bola Tinubu’s administration. This article seeks to critically analyse these claims, based on available data to assess their validity and provide a comprehensive understanding for the public to ascertain their veracity.
1. Trade Surplus and Economic Diversification
APC Claimed that Nigeria achieved a substantial trade surplus of $14.31 billion in 2024, attributed to vigorous promotion of non-oil exports, reduced reliance on imported goods, and diversification of the economy.
Factcheck:
Import Reduction: The truth is that the devaluation of the naira has made imports more expensive, leading to a reduction in import volumes. This import compression, driven by decreased purchasing power, contributes to the trade surplus and this cannot be claimed to indicate sustainable economic health. The pain of a surgery cannot be equated with good health.
Non-Oil Exports: It is a fact that the administration has made efforts to promote non-oil exports, however, crude oil continues to dominate Nigeria’s export profile. In Q3 2024, crude oil exports were valued at ₦13.41 trillion, representing 65.44% of total exports, whereas non-oil products contributed ₦2.50 trillion or 12.21% of total exports. We are not where we are supposed to be yet and the journey is still paralytic.
Diversification: The reliance on crude oil exports indicates limited progress in diversifying the economy. Sustainable economic diversification requires significant investment in other sectors, such as manufacturing and agriculture, which currently face challenges like inadequate infrastructure and policy support.
Verdict: The reported trade surplus is influenced more by reduced imports due to naira devaluation than by a substantial increase in non-oil exports or effective diversification.
2. Foreign Exchange Policies and Naira Valuation
APC claimed that the unification of exchange rates has resulted in higher foreign exchange inflow, while the country’s foreign reserves have shown resilient growth despite global economic pressures.
Factcheck:
Foreign Reserves: Yes, Nigeria’s foreign reserves rose to $34.1 billion in June 2024; however, this includes $2.3 billion in International Monetary Fund (IMF) loans, indicating that the apparent growth may not solely result from increased foreign exchange inflows.
Naira Valuation: In addition to the hardship caused by exchange rate unification efforts, the naira has experienced significant depreciation. Between February 1 and February 5, 2024, the naira fell by over 50%, from ₦898 to ₦1,400 per US dollar, before stabilizing around ₦1,600 by July 2024. This depreciation has contributed to high inflation, which ended 2024 at 35%, impacting the purchasing power of Nigerians. Millions of Nigerians have been made poorer by the twin policies of exchange rate unification and further depreciation of the naira.
Verdict: While exchange rate unification aimed to attract investment and stabilize the currency, the significant depreciation of the naira and high inflation posed challenges in achieving these objectives.
3. Increased Allocations to State and Local Governments
APC claimed that under President Tinubu’s leadership, state and local governments now receive vastly higher allocations from the Federation Accounts Allocation Committee (FAAC), enabling them to extend development to their people.
Factcheck:
Allocation Increases: Yes, higher FAAC allocations are partly due to the removal of fuel subsidies, which previously consumed a substantial portion of government revenue. However, the increased allocations is also a reflection of inflationary pressures and naira devaluation, which inflate nominal figures without necessarily enhancing real purchasing power. With the depreciation of the naira, the real value of the allocation is marginal if not in the negative.
A president who ascended to power on the angelic winds of hope began his journey on May 29, 2023, only to shatter the very aspirations that propelled him forward with a whimsical, almost reckless declaration: “Subsidy is gone.” In that moment, the lifeline of millions was severed, plunging countless Nigerian families into an abyss of despair.
What was meant to be a bold statement of intent became an emblem of heartless governance, the defining pulse of an administration seemingly indifferent to the suffering it has unleashed. The reckless gamble to showcase audacity from day one has instead exposed a regime devoid of foresight and empathy – an impulsive flex of power triumphing over strategic governance.
The captain did not merely set sail; he scuttled the ship of state on the very first day, leaving economic architects scrambling for solutions they have yet to find. And for the millions already thrust into poverty by a single, ill-conceived proclamation, the damage is not just done – it is irreversible.
Utilization of Funds: History has taught Nigerians that the effectiveness of increased allocations depends on transparent and efficient use by state and local governments. Challenges such as corruption, mismanagement, and inadequate capacity impede the translation of higher allocations into tangible development outcomes. Indeed, the more allocation you give, the more the looting spree. In the meantime, corruption is fighting corruption, Nigerians know who the winner is.
Verdict: While allocations have increased nominally, ensuring that these funds lead to meaningful development requires addressing systemic governance issues at sub-national levels. Unfortunately, the machinery of fighting corruption has never been weaker in the recent past.
4. GDP Growth and Economic Reforms
APC claimed that Nigeria’s GDP growth rate surged to 3.8% year-on-year in Q4 2024, marking the highest growth rate since Q4 2021, as a direct outcome of the administration’s prudent economic policies.
Factcheck:
Growth Drivers: The reported GDP growth can be attributed to the influence of a rebound in oil production and prices rather than solely by domestic economic reforms. Structural issues such as high unemployment and inflation continue to pose challenges to sustainable economic growth of the country. The growth is not visible let alone for it to be shared.
Inflation Impact: High inflation, which reached 35% at the end of 2024, has eroded real income and dampened consumer spending, offsetting GDP growth benefits.
Verdict: While GDP growth figures appear positive, underlying economic challenges still require comprehensive reforms beyond headline growth statistics.
5. Fuel Subsidy Removal and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
APC claimed that the removal of fuel subsidy now saves Nigeria an estimated ₦4 trillion annually, and financial diplomacy has attracted significant foreign direct investment.
Factcheck:
Subsidy Savings: Yes, the removal of fuel subsidies has freed up fiscal resources; however, the impact of the savings on public welfare depends on how effectively these funds are reallocated to productive sectors, which is not entirely the case. Additionally, the removal has contributed to higher fuel prices, exacerbating inflation and increasing the cost of living for Nigerians. Many businesses are now energy-starved.
FDI Inflows: Available data indicates that net FDI fell by 48% year-on-year in Q1 2024, suggesting that despite policy reforms, challenges such as security concerns and economic instability continue to deter foreign investors. Investment follows guaranteed, appreciable return. Insecurity and foreign currency starvation, especially the dollar, are disablers of FDIs.
Verdict: While subsidy removal has presented fiscal benefits, the anticipated boost in FDI has not materialized, highlighting the need for the government to ensure a stable and secure investment climate.
6. Political Context and Internal Party Dynamics
APC claimed that El-Rufai’s departure is self-serving, and the APC remains committed to its founding progressive ideals.
Factcheck:
Party Cohesion: The APC has faced significant internal disagreements, with multiple high-profile politicians expressing dissatisfaction with governance direction. El-Rufai is not alone in his criticism – several APC governors and party members have raised concerns about the economic policies of this administration and governance effectiveness. The internal crisis is evident in the party’s struggle to manage defections and factionalisation. The Party Chairman has little power to make independent decisions. The party machinery collapsed into an awry silence, waiting for the angelic voice from the top to determine where to turn and unturn. Internal party democracy has gone on AWOL (Absence Without Leave).
Shifts in Ideology: While the APC claims to uphold progressive values, its policy direction suggests a strong neoliberal economic approach (e.g., fuel subsidy removal, currency devaluation) rather than a robust social safety net – the party has metamorphosed to APDPC. Critics argue that these policies disproportionately affect lower-income groups, which contradicts the party’s supposed progressive stance.
Defections to SDP: Yes, the assertion that SDP offers no ideological refuge to El-Rufai is partly accurate, as Nigerian political parties often lack strong ideological foundations. However, El-Rufai’s criticism of APC resonates with broader public concerns about governance, transparency, and economic hardships. Therefore, regardless of which shade of APDPC he has absconded to, everything remains the same.
Verdict: The APC’s dismissal of El-Rufai’s departure as purely self-serving overlooks deeper structural issues within the party and growing discontent among both politicians and the public. Wishing the Party’s problems away along with El-Rufai will not fix the Party’s woes.
7. Data Gaps and Misrepresentation in the Press Statement
One key issue the APC statement raised is the selective presentation of data and omission of critical economic indicators. It is important to complete the picture.
Trade Surplus Calculation: The reported trade surplus of $14.31 billion does not account for informal trade, which significantly affects Nigeria’s economy. A more accurate measure would require a comprehensive trade balance analysis that includes informal cross-border transactions.
GDP Growth Context: The press statement presents GDP growth as a major success without acknowledging that real GDP per capita remains low due to high population growth and inflation-adjusted economic performance. We produce less than we need, and instead of going on overdrive to fill this gap, we are giving waivers to import food items!
Inflation and Unemployment: The APC press statement forgets to mention the real impact of inflation on living costs. The World Bank reported that 80 million Nigerians fell below the poverty line in 2024 due to rising inflation and economic shocks, a fact omitted from the press release. Similarly, unemployment remains a pressing concern, with youth unemployment estimated at over 40%.
FAAC Allocations vs. Real Spending Power: The claim that states and local governments are receiving more funds is numerically true, but the inflation-adjusted value of these allocations remains stagnant or even declining. The press release does not provide details on how these funds have translated into tangible development projects.
Verdict: The APC press statement is an endeavour in willful blindness, selectively highlighting favorable statistics while omitting critical socio-economic realities, creating a misleading picture of overall economic progress.
Final Word
The APC press statement presents an optimistic picture of Nigeria’s economic and political landscape under President Tinubu. However, a critical review reveals several inconsistencies, selective data representation, and overlooked socio-economic hardships:
1. The reported trade surplus is largely driven by reduced imports due to naira depreciation and inflation rather than genuine economic diversification.
2. Foreign exchange unification has not significantly stabilized the naira, which remains highly volatile.
3. Higher FAAC allocations are inflation-driven and do not necessarily equate to improved governance at the state and local levels.
4. GDP growth, while positive, does not reflect broad-based economic improvement given rising poverty and unemployment.
5. Fuel subsidy removal has generated fiscal savings, but its economic burden on citizens, particularly the poor, is underrepresented.
6. APC’s internal struggles and the defection of key figures highlight governance and ideological inconsistencies within the party.
7. Key socio-economic indicators, including inflation and real income decline, are omitted from the press release, skewing public perception.
What APC needs to do going forward:
1. Provide transparent data on subsidy savings utilization, FAAC allocations, and real trade figures, including informal sector contributions.
2. Address the structural issues impacting economic diversification beyond oil dependency.
3. Implement transparent and targeted social safety nets to cushion the impact of inflation and currency devaluation.
4. Engage in constructive political dialogue to address internal party discontent rather than dismissing critics outright.
The APC’s statement seeks to project confidence but a closer examination reveals significant gaps between rhetoric and reality. For the administration to build credibility, it must present a more nuanced and data-driven approach to policy communication, acknowledging both achievements and persistent challenges.
Sunday Mba writes from mbasunday2000@gmail.com
Sunday Mba: Fact-checking APC press statement on El-Rufai’s defection
